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Editorial Voting under occupation
December 17th, 2004 -- As the year draws to a close, there are signs that the distinctly gloomy outlook that has characterized it for the most part might lift in the early part of 2005. The basis for optimism, albeit slender, centres on the twin electoral processes due to take place in the region in January. In Iraq, where the level of insurgent attacks has been reduced at least enough to allow the likelihood of polling taking place in most of the country, the political elite is in the process of forming alliances to contest an election which will give the general public a role in determining who rules them for the first time since the state’s creation. In the Occupied Territories, Palestinians can also look forward to going to the polls with a modicum of personal security. Yaser Arafat’s successor will also be chosen by broad popular mandate, albeit only by Palestinians resident in the West Bank and Gaza. It is doubly ironic that, first, the two processes are taking place in countries under foreign military occupation, and second, that in each instance the successful party is very likely to have enjoyed the support of the occupying power. In Iraq, the principal Sunni Islamist party will compete but is constrained from success by the minority status of its constituency without a tactical alliance with a larger grouping; the Sadrists, effectively the Shi’ite opposition, seem to be in a state of constant indecision but are unlikely to participate as such; the insurgents, of course, will probably do their best to sabotage the whole affair. Ayatollah Sistani’s United Iraqi Alliance is likely to form the largest bloc in the new parliament, but it will need support from the Kurdish factions and a possible combination between supporters of President Yawer and Prime Minister Allawi to form a government. The personnel of that government are unlikely to differ from that of the present cabinet. The Palestinian presidential election promised a few days ago to be a tight contest, with the front-runners too close to call. Marwan Barghuthi’s second change of mind leaves Mahmud Abbas, the candidate favoured overwhelmingly by not only Israel and the United States but also by almost every other outside party to have voiced an interest, almost sure to win. Both Hamas and the Popular Front have called on their supporters to boycott the poll. Given the likely lack of serious challenges to the favourites in either case, the focus of attention will be as much on how many people vote as on who wins. In Iraq, intimidation of voters by the insurgents may prove to be less of a factor than was feared until very recently, but both a sizeable segment of the Sunni population and many Shi’ite followers of Muqtada al-Sadr are unlikely to vote. In the Occupied Territories the intimidation was expected to come from the occupying power itself. Israeli Defence Minister Mofaz’s generous concession of three days of grace (7-9 January) to allow Palestinians to get to polling stations and vote may have allayed some fears on that score, but the fate of independent candidate Mustafa Barghuthi — detained at a checkpoint in the West Bank and beaten up after he told the soldiers who he was — can hardly have inspired public confidence. A significant part of the Palestinian population is likely not to vote in any case. The number of supporters of Hamas and the PFLP who obey their leaderships’ calls for a boycott remains to be seen. There is also likely to be a sizeable number of people who would have voted for Marwan Barghuthi who may, now, choose not to vote. That attacks on the Israelis by the militias will continue was signalled by the military actions in Gaza in early December. It again remains to be seen how the Israelis will respond. Israeli restraint is surely being urged by Washington, but Prime Minister Sharon is perhaps now himself anxious to see a successful process elect a leader he believes he can work with, and one, furthermore, who will have the legitimacy only a widely supported electoral process can bestow to work with him. In both Iraq and Palestine, however, given the reality of military occupation, the legitimacy of the governments that result from these elections is likely to be judged by how they act when in office vis-ŕ-vis the occupying powers rather than by the process which brought them to power. |
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